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How to Handicap a Horse Race and Estimate the Favorite’s Win Probability to Find a Good Bet

Every handicapper should be able to calculate the chances of the favorite winning the race. That one skill, above all others, will help the horse player to make a profit and find a bet. The reason is money. The favorite, or “chalk,” as they’re sometimes called, has more money than any other horse in the race. If you want to make money you have to follow the money and when those who are throwing around the largest amounts make a mistake, that’s when you pounce, whether you use the win pool or exotics.

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